LITERATURE REVIEW

The Carbon Footprint Paradox: Energy Generation, Electric Vehicle Adoption,

and Charging Economics in Malaysia

Draft for Academic Manuscript

1. Introduction

Malaysia, as the third highest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂) per capita in Southeast Asia [1], faces a fundamental structural contradiction in its decarbonisation agenda. The nation has pledged to reduce its economy-wide carbon intensity by 45% by 2030 relative to 2005 levels under its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement [2], with aspirations to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 [3]. However, a critical examination of the country’s energy generation mix, vehicle fleet composition, electric vehicle (EV) adoption trajectory, and charging economics reveals that the distance between policy ambition and structural reality remains considerable.

This literature review critically examines the interconnected systems that underpin Malaysia’s carbon footprint—from the coal-dominated electricity grid, to the nascent but rapidly growing EV market, and the fragmented charging infrastructure that governs the economics of electrified transport. By synthesising data from peer-reviewed literature, government agencies (MAA, TNB, JPJ), and international organisations (IEA, IRENA, Ember), this review frames a narrative questioning whether the prevailing optimism surrounding EV adoption is structurally justified within the broader context of carbon reduction. The contribution of this review lies in its systems-level integration of energy, transport, and policy domains—an approach largely absent in the existing literature, which tends to examine these dimensions in isolation.

2. Malaysia’s Electricity Generation: A Fossil Fuel-Dominated Grid

2.1 Current Generation Mix

Malaysia’s electricity generation is overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [4] and Ember [5], the nation’s electricity mix comprises approximately 45% coal, 32% natural gas, 18.5% hydropower, 2.5% biofuels, and 1.8% solar photovoltaics. Fossil fuels collectively account for more than 77–82% of total electricity output. This places Malaysia among the most carbon-intensive electricity producers in the ASEAN region, with power sector emissions per capita of 3.4 tonnes of CO₂—nearly double the global average of 1.8 tCO₂ [5]. Aziz et al. [6] note that as of 2022, Malaysia had generated roughly 2% of its electricity from renewable sources, “still far from the initial target of reaching 20% RE penetration by 2030.”

Table 1: Malaysia Electricity Generation Mix (2024–2025)

Sources: IEA [4]; Ember [5]; Low Carbon Power Data [7]

2.2 The Coal Trajectory: A Structural Reversal

A critical structural shift documented in the literature is the reversal from natural gas dominance to coal over the past two decades. The IEA [4] reports that natural gas constituted 67% of Malaysia’s power mix in 2005, declining to 47% by 2015 as policies deliberately shifted generation towards coal in response to declining domestic gas production. Ahmad et al. [8] contextualise this within Malaysia’s broader energy transition readiness, noting that coal power plants are projected for phase-out but renewable energy will only grow from 4% in 2023 to 22% of total primary energy supply by 2050. Yahoo et al. [9] demonstrate through computable general equilibrium modelling that increasing the share of coal and gas in the generation mix “compromises emission reduction targets,” while noting that approximately 63% of total coal consumed in Malaysia is imported from Indonesia, with 92% directed to coal-fired power plants.

The National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), launched in 2023, envisions shutting down coal-fired plants by 2044 and achieving 70% renewable energy in the generation mix by 2050 [3]. However, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) [10] rates this target as “well below what is needed to reach net zero in that same year.” Chen et al. [11] utilise LEAP-based energy scenario modelling to evaluate Malaysia’s transition pathways, concluding that proper energy planning is required to analyse various decarbonisation pathways, and that the status quo trajectory falls short of climate commitments.

2.3 The Emerging Solar Cost Advantage

Despite fossil fuel dominance, BloombergNEF’s techno-economic analysis [12] reveals that utility-scale solar is already the cheapest source of new bulk power generation in Malaysia, with a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of USD 33–61/MWh, compared to USD 78–89/MWh for combined-cycle gas turbines and USD 56–77/MWh for coal. However, solar currently meets only 8–11% of power demand at noon [12], and the Energy Commission is only preparing its first battery energy storage system (BESS) auction for 2026—a necessary but belated step. The IRENA Malaysia Energy Transition Outlook [13] emphasises that pumped hydro and battery storage are critical enablers for higher solar penetration, and that stability protocols must be redesigned as the system moves from synchronous machines to inverter-based generation.

2.4 The Data Centre Paradox and Grid Carbon Transfer

An emerging concern is the surge of data centre investments, which threatens to spike energy consumption on an already carbon-intensive grid [14]. Weber et al. [1] model this challenge through integrated assessment modelling, demonstrating that “decarbonisation of the power sector paired with extensive electrification” is essential, but that Malaysia’s current measures under the Policies scenario do not achieve carbon neutrality. The well-to-wheel implication is significant: when an EV is charged on a grid deriving 82% of electricity from fossil fuels, emissions are geographically displaced rather than eliminated. Champeecharoensuk et al. [31] conduct a life cycle assessment (LCA) comparing ICE and electric vehicles across five ASEAN nations including Malaysia, confirming that while EVs produce lower GHG emissions than ICE vehicles, “further improvements in electricity production and increased reliance on renewable energy sources are important drivers for achieving net-zero emissions target.” Muzir et al. [15] model the impact of different operating conditions for electric and conventional vehicles in Malaysia specifically, confirming that grid carbon intensity substantially attenuates the environmental benefit of electrification. A broader systematic review of EV LCA studies [32] demonstrates that in coal-dependent grids, “the life-cycle emissions of a BEV can be comparable to those of a gasoline vehicle,” underscoring the critical dependence of EV environmental benefits on the underlying electricity generation mix.

3. The Vehicle Fleet: Scale, Structure, and the EV Fraction

3.1 Cumulative Vehicle Registrations

Malaysia’s Road Transport Department (JPJ) data reveals that total registered vehicles reached 36.3 million units as of October 2023—exceeding the national population of 32.4 million [16]. Passenger cars constitute 17.24 million units (47.5%), motorcycles 16.77 million (46.2%), goods transport vehicles 1.43 million, with the remainder comprising taxis, buses, and rental vehicles. Of these, approximately 23.8 million maintain active road tax licences [16]. The near-parity between cars and motorcycles is a defining characteristic of Malaysian transport with profound implications for electrification strategies, as the UNCTAD study on EV transition in Malaysia [17] observes that the electric motorcycle market remains negligible despite constituting nearly half the fleet.

3.2 New Vehicle Sales and TIV Context

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) [18] reports that total industry volume (TIV) reached an all-time high of 820,752 units in 2025—the second consecutive year exceeding 800,000 units and the fourth consecutive year of post-pandemic growth. Passenger vehicles accounted for approximately 751,000 units, with commercial vehicles contributing the remainder.

3.3 The EV Adoption Trajectory

The EV market has exhibited remarkable percentage growth from an exceedingly low base. Saharan et al. [19] document that from 2013 to 2020, EV sales fluctuated below 100 units annually, constrained by high ownership costs, limited model availability, low consumer awareness, and the absence of government incentives. Asadi et al. [20] identify through DEMATEL analysis that environmental concern, trust in EVs, personal norms, and price value are the most important adoption determinants. Hasan et al. [21] note the challenges including EV cost, charging station availability, power grid impact, and battery capacity as key barriers. The inflection point arrived in 2022 with Budget 2022 tax exemptions for CBU EVs.

Table 2: Electric Vehicle Sales in Malaysia (2021–2025)

Sources: MAA [18]; Saharan et al. [19]; IEA Global EV Outlook [22]

Even at the 2025 peak, pure EVs constituted only 3.76% of new vehicle sales. Against the cumulative active fleet of ~24 million vehicles, the roughly 59,000 EVs sold cumulatively (2022–2025) represent approximately 0.25% of vehicles on the road. MyZEVA data reported through Kenanga Research [34] indicates even higher registration figures—recording 22,940 BEV registrations in 2024 alone—but notes that xEVs (BEV + hybrid) still represented only 8.1% of the 856,292 TIV in that year. The IEA Global EV Outlook [22] notes that in Malaysia, electric car sales more than doubled in 2024, largely due to imported EVs being exempt from duties until end-2025. The government’s target of 15% EV share of TIV by 2030, scaling to 40% by 2040 and 80% by 2050 [17], requires adoption rates without structural precedent in the Malaysian context. The UiTM-published study by Othman et al. [23] using UTAUT framework confirms that despite steady sales growth, Malaysia’s adoption rates remain low compared to neighbouring countries.

3.4 The Motorcycle Blind Spot

A critical gap in the national EV discourse is the near-total absence of electric motorcycle strategy. With 16.77 million registered motorcycles and 65% of road fatalities involving motorcyclists [16], the two-wheeler segment is both the largest untapped electrification opportunity and the most neglected. Rosli et al. [24] in their review of EV power sources and infrastructure gaps benchmark Malaysia against global markets but note that the grid limitations and high capital costs remain binding constraints—doubly so for the price-sensitive motorcycle segment where no mainstream electric alternatives exist.

4. The Economics of EV Charging in Malaysia

4.1 Home Charging: The Cost Advantage

Home charging economics are governed by TNB’s progressive residential tariff, starting at RM 0.218/kWh for the first 200 kWh block and escalating to RM 0.571/kWh for usage exceeding 900 kWh monthly, with an 8% service tax above 600 kWh [25]. Under the current tariff structure, a full home charge ranges from approximately RM 7 for smaller battery packs (30 kWh class) at lower tiers, to RM 25 for larger packs (60–70 kWh) at higher consumption tiers. For a mid-range 40 kWh battery, the cost approximates RM 9.59 at the lowest tier [26]. TNB has also introduced a Time-of-Use (ToU) tariff offering ~RM 0.2443/kWh during off-peak hours (10:00 PM–2:00 PM) [25]. Energy losses during home charging—estimated at 10–16%—must be factored into true cost calculations [26], [27]. Installation costs range from RM 1,500 to RM 7,900 depending on charger type [26].

4.2 Public Charging: A Fragmented and Costly Landscape

The public charging ecosystem presents a starkly different economic proposition with rates varying dramatically across providers, creating significant uncertainty in EV ownership economics [24], [27].

Table 3: Public EV Charging Rates in Malaysia (2025)

Sources: TNB Tariff Schedule [25]; Industry survey data [27], [28]

The disparity is substantial. At the lower end, promotional rates offer DC fast charging at RM 0.88/kWh, while TNB Electron charges RM 1.35–1.80/kWh. Highway time-rated chargers at RM 3–4/minute translate to effective costs approaching or exceeding petrol parity [28]. The Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA) [33] reports that as of October 2024, Malaysia had installed 3,354 charging stations including 956 DC fast chargers—only 33.54% of the 10,000 target for 2025. More recent data from the Malaysian Zero Emission Vehicle Association (MyZEVA) [34] indicates that by December 2024, 3,611 chargers had been deployed (1,095 DC, 2,516 AC), reaching 36% of the target, with more than half concentrated in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Johor. MyZEVA estimates that Malaysia will need approximately 92,000 chargers to serve 740,000 BEVs by 2030 [34]. The UNCTAD study [17] documents that the slow roll-out is attributed partly to lengthy approval processes and bureaucratic delays.

5. The Carbon Footprint Paradox: Structural Contradictions

5.1 The Intensity Target vs Absolute Emissions

Malaysia’s NDC is structured as a carbon intensity target—emissions per unit of GDP—rather than an absolute emissions reduction target [2]. Since GHG emissions have been rising at a slower rate than GDP growth globally, this metric is likely to be met even as absolute emissions continue to increase [14]. Weber et al. [1] demonstrate through integrated assessment modelling that while Malaysia can technically reach carbon neutrality by 2050, it requires “carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions.” Ahmad et al. [8] confirm that CO₂ emissions in Malaysia have “increased drastically throughout the last 20 years,” with population projected to reach 40 million by 2050 and energy demands growing by 2% annually.

5.2 The Forest Carbon Dependency

A fragile assumption underpinning the entire net-zero framework is the role of forest carbon sinks. More than 65% of Malaysia’s annual emissions are offset by forests, and the NETR assumes that “forests will stand as they are up to 2050” [14]. This renders the decarbonisation framework contingent upon forest conservation in a nation where palm oil remains a dominant economic sector and a historical driver of deforestation. The Net Zero Tracker [29] rates Malaysia’s net-zero plan as incomplete, with “unspecified formal accountability mechanisms and plans to use external offset credits.”

5.3 Policy Incoherence: Subsidised Petrol vs EV Incentives

The policy landscape exhibits fundamental incoherence. In 2025, the Budi Madani RON 95 (Budi95) programme pinned petrol at RM 1.99/litre for eligible consumers, while CBU EV tax exemptions expired on 31 December 2025 [18]. Starting January 2026, fully imported EVs face 30% import duty, 10% excise duty, and 10% sales tax [30]. Yahoo et al. [9] model the trade-off between subsidised natural gas supplies and power generation, demonstrating that subsidy rationalisation is essential for meaningful renewable expansion. The simultaneous provision of cheaper petrol and more expensive imported EVs creates countervailing incentives that structurally discourage the ICE-to-EV transition, as noted by the IEA [22] in the context of emerging market EV policy design.

5.4 Government Action Plans: Grid Readiness and Demand-Supply Balancing

The question of whether Malaysia’s electricity grid can absorb a rapidly growing EV fleet has prompted a multi-layered government response spanning grid infrastructure upgrades, energy storage deployment, renewable energy acceleration, demand management, and the revival of nuclear energy. If EV and PHEV adoption continues on its current exponential trajectory, the compounding demand from electrified transport—layered upon the already-surging data centre loads projected at 5,000 MW by 2035 [36]—could outpace the grid’s ability to supply reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean electricity.

The most significant infrastructure commitment is TNB’s RM 43 billion grid modernisation programme [37], which integrates artificial intelligence (AI) for grid management, smart metering, and system flexibility upgrades. This investment is framed within the Incentive-Based Regulation (IBR) framework, where the strengthening of the national grid to support EV charging infrastructure is now explicitly incorporated into TNB’s capital expenditure plans [36]. TNB’s “Building the EV Ecosystem” 10-year roadmap outlines three implementation phases: the Seed stage (2022–2024) for establishing foundational infrastructure, the Deploy stage (2025–2027) for scaling charging networks and initiating vehicle-to-grid (V2G) research, and the Scale stage (2028–2030) for full ecosystem maturity [38]. The target is 500,000 battery electric vehicles and 18,000 charging points by 2030, which TNB projects would yield 4.432 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions reduction [38].

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have been designated as a foundational tool for renewable energy integration under both the NETR and MyRER [39]. The Malaysia Battery Energy Storage Technology (MyBeST) initiative targets 400 MW of capacity and 1,600 MWh of energy storage by 2027 [40]. The Peninsular Malaysia Generation Development Plan includes 100 MW of BESS deployment annually from 2030 to 2034, totalling 500 MW of installed capacity, while Sabah plans 120 MW of BESS between 2023 and 2026 [39]. The MyRER report estimates that Peninsular Malaysia will require 5.7 GWh of energy storage by 2035 at 30% solar penetration [39]. Additionally, 2,500 MW of hybrid hydro-floating solar plants at TNB dam reservoirs are planned under the NETR [39]. Chen et al. [41] model five national energy scenarios and investigate near-optimal BESS and pumped hydro storage capacities required by 2040, confirming that substantial storage investment is essential.

Renewable energy targets are being progressively ratcheted upward. The 13th Malaysia Plan (RMK13), released in July 2025, raises the near-term target to 35% renewable energy in the generation mix by 2030, up from approximately 29% today [42]. Beyond this, the NETR envisions 40% renewable capacity by 2035, and 70% by 2050. Large-scale solar (LSS) reverse auction mechanisms—mirroring successful models in India and elsewhere—have been introduced to drive down costs through competitive bidding, with the first rounds launched in 2024 [43]. The Net Energy Metering (NEM) programme has been expanded from 500 MW to 1,000 MW capacity, and the Corporate Green Power Programme (CGPP) with its 800 MW allocated quota enables corporate consumers to procure renewable energy through virtual power purchase agreements [39]. Ember [44] recommends that achieving 80% hourly clean electricity in Peninsular Malaysia by 2030 could save USD 600 million annually in LNG imports.

Perhaps the most significant policy reversal is the revival of nuclear energy. Nuclear power, absent from the 2023 NETR, was officially recognised as a potential energy source in late 2024 and formally incorporated into RMK13 [42]. MyPOWER Corp has been designated as the Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organisation (NEPIO), with the first plant targeted for operation after 2035. BloombergNEF’s Net Zero Scenario for Malaysia includes 17 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050 [12], while industry projections suggest deployment of 2–4 small modular reactor (SMR) units totalling 750–1,200 MW may be feasible by the early 2030s [42]. This is significant because nuclear provides zero-emission baseload power—precisely the generation profile needed to support overnight EV charging at scale without relying on intermittent solar.

Demand-side management is also being addressed. TNB’s Regulatory Period 4 (RP4) tariff structure, introduced in July 2025, restructures electricity bills into energy, capacity, network, and retail components. This includes an Automatic Fuel Adjustment mechanism to reflect real-time market dynamics [40] and applies cost-reflective pricing to high-demand consumers such as data centres while maintaining protection for residential low-voltage consumers. Time-of-Use (ToU) tariffs incentivise overnight EV charging during off-peak periods, and TNB is evaluating BESS deployment specifically to flatten the emerging “duck curve” created by daytime solar excess and nighttime demand peaks [36]. Cross-border electricity interconnection through the ASEAN Power Grid is also being pursued to enable power imports from neighbours with surplus clean generation capacity [40].

However, the gap between policy articulation and deployment reality remains wide. The World Energy Council [45] notes that fossil fuels are still expected to account for 78% of total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2050 under the NETR’s Responsible Transition pathway—suggesting that even the government’s own roadmap does not envision a fully decarbonised grid within the net-zero timeframe. Ahmad et al. [8] observe that investment in clean energy has been declining after a substantial rise in 2017, and that many energy transition initiatives lack clear, compelling opportunities for investors. The RM 637 billion in green investments required to achieve the 70% renewable target by 2050 represents a mobilisation challenge of unprecedented scale for Malaysia’s financial system.

6. Discussion: A Systems Perspective

From a systems engineering perspective, Malaysia’s carbon reduction challenge can be characterised as a multi-domain control problem where the corrective feedback mechanisms (EV incentives, solar auctions, BESS deployment, grid modernisation) are being substantially strengthened—as outlined in Section 5.4—but remain in the early stages of deployment against dominant positive feedback loops driving emissions growth (coal dependency, growing electricity demand from data centres, vehicle fleet expansion, motorcycle dominance, and subsidised fossil fuel consumption). The RM 43 billion grid upgrade [37], the MyBeST initiative targeting 400 MW / 1,600 MWh of storage by 2027 [40], the nuclear revival under RMK13 [42], and the accelerated renewable targets all represent necessary corrective actions. However, the question is whether these interventions can achieve sufficient gain and bandwidth to stabilise the system before demand outpaces supply.

The quantitative evidence is unambiguous. The nation’s ~59,000 cumulative EVs operate on a grid that is 82% fossil-fuelled, within a fleet of 24 million active vehicles where motorcycles—which have no electrification pathway—constitute nearly half. The charging economics reveal a two-tiered reality: home charging at RM 7–25 per full charge (30–100 kWh battery) remains competitive, but public fast charging at RM 0.90–1.80/kWh erodes the cost advantage for users without home infrastructure. Champeecharoensuk et al. [31] confirm through ASEAN-wide LCA that EV emissions benefits are conditional on grid decarbonisation. Chen et al. [11] conclude that without accelerated renewable expansion, the energy transition scenarios fall short of net-zero requirements. Rosli et al. [24] identify that energy grid limitations remain a fundamental constraint. Weber et al. [1] stress that decarbonisation of the power sector must be paired with extensive electrification across all sectors to achieve meaningful results.

The literature collectively suggests that Malaysia’s carbon footprint reduction programme, while increasingly comprehensive in its policy architecture, faces a race against time. The NDC’s intensity-based framing [2], the fossil-dominated grid [4], [5], the negligible EV fleet penetration [18], [19], the motorcycle blind spot [16], [17], and the policy contradictions [9], [22] create a web of structural impediments that headline EV growth statistics alone cannot overcome. The government’s response—grid modernisation, BESS deployment, nuclear revival, and renewable acceleration—addresses these impediments but requires execution at unprecedented scale and speed. The World Energy Council [45] observation that fossil fuels may still constitute 78% of TPES by 2050 under the NETR’s own Responsible Transition pathway underscores the magnitude of the challenge ahead.

7. Conclusion and Research Gaps

This review identifies several critical research gaps. First, comprehensive well-to-wheel lifecycle emissions analyses specific to the Malaysian grid mix are needed—Muzir et al. [15] and Champeecharoensuk et al. [31] provide initial modelling but further work across diverse vehicle classes and grid decarbonisation scenarios is warranted, as recent systematic reviews [32] confirm that LCA outcomes are fundamentally context-dependent. Second, the two-wheeler electrification pathway—encompassing nearly half the national vehicle fleet—remains virtually unexplored [17], [24]. Third, the interplay between data centre energy demand, EV charging load growth, and renewable deployment requires systematic modelling [1], [11], [41]—particularly given TNB’s projection of 5,000 MW data centre demand by 2035 layered upon growing EV charging loads. Fourth, the adequacy of planned BESS capacity (400 MW by 2027, 500 MW by 2034) and the feasibility of nuclear deployment timelines require independent technical assessment against projected demand growth trajectories [39], [42]. Fifth, the behavioural economics of EV adoption under subsidised petrol conditions merits empirical study [20], [23]. Sixth, the financial and policy architectures needed to mobilise the RM 637 billion in green investments required by 2050 demand integrated modelling approaches that bridge the energy-transport-finance nexus [8], [9], [13], [45].

Malaysia’s energy transition is real and accelerating—with substantive commitments including RM 43 billion in grid upgrades, BESS deployment targets, nuclear energy revival, and progressive renewable capacity scaling. Yet the transition remains nascent relative to the scale of the challenge, its EV adoption is growing but from an insignificant base, and its carbon reduction commitments—while politically significant—are structurally dependent on successful execution of grid modernisation, storage deployment, and generation diversification that have yet to materialise at the required pace. The path from aspiration to achievement requires not incremental adjustments but the synchronised restructuring of the energy, transport, and policy architectures that currently define the nation’s carbon trajectory.

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